How nervous should I be?

[johnpalmer]

So, I live in Seattle; I have for getting on to 13 years now. Rules are: don't put away your rain gear until after the 4th of July.

This has been the driest spring I've ever seen. Is this a problem? I don't know - 13 years ain't nothing when it comes to unusual seasons.

And yet... and yet we're seeing more and more signs of global warming. And I don't know if a dry spring is a *big deal* or not.

It's times like this... well. I always kinda-sorta-hypothetically wanted children. I knew it wasn't likely to happen - as my thirties went by with a woman I couldn't trust to be a good mother due to health issues, and my own health only barely-good-enough, I realized that the chance of fathering a child was pretty small, and it grows smaller daily. But I'm also a little bit relieved.

And I hope someday, I think I'm a damn fool for saying that, for not having faith that with the sheer mass of humanity, and thus, the sheer mass of intelligence and flat out cussedness that humans wouldn't find a way to handle all of this. If so, it'll be a strong lesson not to take too much from some pretty scary signs. Right now, I don't think humanity is mature enough to accept the risk, or carry out the necessary actions.

Comments

[dubhain]

I don't konw. We might be.

Down here, we were under water restrictions before the wet season even ended. Still I see people wasting water Right and Left, because they don't like "government" (in this case, the city) telling them what to do.

We've steered away from promoting critical thinking, in our society, for a couple-three decades, now, and the results are starting to become evident.

I've a great deal of faith in humanity. But I'm wondering whether climate change -- both resulting from industrial pollution and destabilization of the environment due to resource exhaustion -- may be the answer to the Fermi paradox. The process of establishing an industrial base rendering a civilization capable and motivated enough to become space-fairing may lead to the devastation of more planets holding sentient populations than not.

I do, however, hope that we manage to successfully survive and address climate change. Luckily, for myself, I don't expect to live long enough to see any major changes happen. I am, however, increasingly glad that I didn't father children. I remember people, back in the early 'seventies, debating whether it was moral to bring a child into a world with the troubles we had, back then. I have to ask the same questions, today, believing the current world and forecast to be far worse a place, despite the end of the Cold War and the admonishment of the threat of nuclear Armageddon. And I honestly can't answer the question satisfactorily. Hence, I'm very glad I never actually had to make the choice, because the doctors advised against my ex-wife bearing children for health reasons.

[johnpalmer]

I'd hate it if the Fermi Paradox was "we all tend to be selfish and short sighted" but it would actually make a kind of scary sense. I saw one person opine that the FP was due to nuclear war, which was depressing, but at least it seemed appropriately *big*. This? This seems so blasted *stupid*.

[dubhain]

Well, as Ellison said: "The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity."

And yes. I agree with you, wholeheartedly.

[ljgeoff.livejournal.com]

I'm sure you knew I'd have to comment...

The persistent high off the California coast (dubbed the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge) is driving moisture up into Canada -- and the coming El Nino isn't acting as predicted either, so there might not be as much rain from that as hoped.

A recent poll has said that most USians aren't really worried about climate change and don't think that it will effect their families. But scientists are now warning us that if we don't take immediate steps, we'll probably see a 2.5-3°C over pre-industrial temps by 2030. (that's taking methane and black carbon into account)

At 3°C, industrial agriculture pretty much turns up its toes.

So, yeah, 15 years and it's not like we'll be able to be eating our McDonald's and hamburger helper all the way there -- things will be getting rough pretty soon. I do not see any room for optimism.